Well, the conventions are over, thank God, and now we can concentrate on turning out the vote. Judging from what I have seen, Biden is not suffering from dementia, just from old-fashioned centrist neo-– liberalism, which we already knew. Having nothing better to do while I sit here in virtual quarantine, let me offer some predictions.
First, the polls will show no significant change as a result of the conventions. I have never seen a time when people's opinions are so set. The polls may tighten as we approach November 3 – I have no foresight about that – but unless they tighten significantly I do not see how Trump can win. The two keys will be turn out and voter suppression.
Second, I predict that as early voting or absentee ballot voting begins, we will see an extraordinary flood of votes, especially from Democrats. I think people are so hungry to vote that they will seize the very first opportunity. This will go a long way toward frustrating Trump's effort to sabotage the post office. If the polls are any indication, people love the post office even more than they love their sports teams and it was insane of him to try publicly to attack the Postal Service.
Third, not so much a prediction as a confirmation of a past prediction, elementary, secondary, and post secondary education is going to be a disaster this fall. My local campus, UNC Chapel Hill, seems to have become a poster child for the problems of university education but our much-publicized difficulties will be replicated all over the country.
Local prediction: I think Cal Cunningham is going to beat Thom Tillis and there is a good chance that the Democrats will take North Carolina.
Meanwhile I am struggling more or less ineffectually with streaming and bandwidth problems caused by the incompetent Spectrum service that we get here in my retirement community. Watching elephants and wildebeest on live cam in Africa is one of my go to amusements these days and at the moment I can no longer get them. Grr!