The UNC basketball team lost to Duke last night, thereby very possibly eliminating it from inclusion in March Madness. That relieves me of the necessity of pretending to care what happens to them, so I can now turn to the more important business of making political predictions. As always, I alert you to the fact that these predictions are based on no inside information whatsoever and precious little outside information either.
I think it is virtually certain that Trump will be indicted
by a grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia sometime later this spring. It is
almost as certain that he will be indicted in the Mar-a-Lago documents case. It is likely that he will be indicted in the
Stormy Daniels payoff case, and it is even possible, although somewhat less
likely, that he will be indicted in the big January 6 case. One way or another,
he will be under indictment when the Republican presidential primaries begin
after the first of the year.
Either in spite of these indictments or because of them, he
will do quite well in the early primaries, and should lock up the nomination by
the summer. He will probably go to trial late in the spring of 2024 and in all
likelihood, before the Republican National Convention, he will have been found
guilty in at least one of these cases.
The Republican Party will then face a difficult decision:
whether to confer the nomination on him or construe the rules in such a way as
to dump him. There is of course no obstacle to someone running for the
presidency when in prison – Eugene Victor Debs ran in 1920 while in prison on
the Socialist ticket and got a considerable number of votes.
If the Republicans do nominate Trump, he will be defeated by
Biden and the Democrats will take the House and even hold the
Senate. If the Republicans dump Trump,
he will do everything in his power to get his supporters not to vote and the
Democrats will win in a romp.
Taking all and all, this is a good reason for me to survive
at least until November of next year.
7 comments:
Just asking, but wouldn't a Republican president be able to pardon Trump if he is jailed?
If so, then Trump, if he is jailed, would have to be very much stupider than I believe he is, to refuse to support a Republican candidate other than himself given that said Republican will pardon him in exchange for Trump's support during the campaign.
A president cannot pardon him for state convictions and the governor of Georgia does not have the power to issue pardons, so there is hope
Then you right.
If Trump is in jail and there's no way a Republican president can pardon him, just out of spite, envy and general ill will, he'll tell his voters not to vote or to vote Libertarian.
It appears he's also going to face some civil suits over Jan.6. He went full fascist at the CPAC clown show.
For security/health reasons I assume any convictions, state or federal, will result in house arrest. Competency may be an issue.
I believe the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles has clemency and pardon power, which under the governor's influence, would likely favor Trump.
Professor Wolff --
Just the other week I was feeling nostalgic for the Hot Stove League -- so glad it has been reconvened. As a contribution, I don't see Trump getting the nomination. I think Trumpism is waning among the more reasonable members of the party. The constant self-martyrdom and unhinged ramblings must give some former supporters pause even though they know he will try to push through the policies they agree with. Then again, you never know.
-- Jim
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