There is an old Cuba Gooding Robert De Niro movie, Men Of Honor, about the first black man to train successfully as a master diver in the United States Navy. Near the beginning, as I recall, De Niro sends the trainees into a pool to test how long they can hold their breath underwater and Gooding stays underwater so long that De Niro is afraid he has drowned. It is now 18 days until the election and I have been wondering idly whether I can hold my breath for that long. Probably even Cuba Gooding couldn't. But what on earth is there left to say? This Sunday early in person voting starts in North Carolina and I thought I would drive to the early voting site in northern Chatham County just to see whether there are long lines. Having already voted, and being essentially in quarantine as I have been for seven months now, there's not much else I can do. Oh, I keep giving money and I suppose that is something but one of the problems with popular democracy is that each individual doesn't really count for that much. I guess there is something to be said for dictatorship if you happen to be the dictator.
I think the odds are improving that late on election night or early the morning after we will have a winner, thereby avoiding at least some of the authoritarian moves Trump has been musing about. In my book on black studies I wrote at length about the myth that the United States is in some way an exception to the general truths about democracy and dictatorship that have been derived from observing the European experience so I will simply say that perhaps our Trump episode will begin to put that myth to rest.
We must keep firmly in mind that even if Trump loses in a landslide, he will still get perhaps 45% of the vote which means, let us say, 70 million votes to Biden's 80 million. Those 70 million people will still be with us on January 20 and for decades thereafter and Trump will not be the last con man with authoritarian fantasies to come along. The real work will begin on January 21.
24 comments:
No, the work is not over on November 3rd. For example, there may be two run-off elections for Senate seats in Georgia on January 5--seats that could determine the control of the Senate.
And even if Democrats control the Senate, they may not do away with the filibuster. Feinstein and Manchin are already on record as opposing the repeal of the filibuster. There may be others. How do we convince them to change their positions? A Biden-Harris administration can do a lot to begin to repair the damage of the Trump years, but it will only get so far with the filibuster in place.
Whether or not they change the filibuster rule seems relatively unimportant compared to the fact, noted above, that 45% of the voters support Trump. And probably a lot of people who don't bother to vote or who are too young to vote support him too.
What kind of educational process can change their heads? What kind of cultural changes are necessary to cure the deep sickness (that's a metaphor of course) which leads to Trumpism?
Otherwise, soon or later another con-man with authoritarian fantasies will come along and maybe he won't have to face a pandemic, maybe the economy will boom during all his first term, etc.
Maybe I'm very innocent and I'm sure that I'm very "out of it", but this article about the massiveness of people cheating in online chess, including chess experts and even children, struck me. It's Trumpism, win, win, win: only winners count and it's all over the place, even in people who don't vote for Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/16/chesss-cheating-crisis-paranoia-has-become-the-culture
Stephen,
Thank you for bringing this issue to our attention. I play chess just about daily at chess.com and I have wondered if my opponent was simultaneously duplicating our moves on a computer program which provided the best response to my last move. Periodically I have received a message from chess.com indicating that they caught one of my opponents violating their fair play rules and have increased my score accordingly. It is disappointing to read that such cheating has become more routine. For what purpose? There is no money involved. And how can one take pleasure in winning a game by cheating?
And yes, I agree that the increase in such behavior could be attributed to Il Duce’s shameless lying and egotism. Young people are being taught by his example that winning is everything, however it is achieved. I hope this has not become the new normal, but I am not optimistic.
Thanks again for the information. It won’t change my chess playing habits, because I enjoy playing the game. And I still win a fair percentage of my games without cheating.
P.S. If anyone wants to play me online (Riduculousiculus?), you can join chess.com for free. It is a superb site for playing chess. You get a chess ranking and can play opponents from all over the world – I have played chess players from India, Australia, Iraq, Iran, Russia, U.K, Brazil, Mexico, etc. And after each game you can request a computer analysis of the game which identifies your best and worst moves. It is really fantastic. My chess handle is “msuss1” and you can request to play me – and punish me for all my comments you disagree with.
I'd say that Trump and widespread cheating at online chess are products of the same deep malaise. If the cause were just Trump, the cheating would not be worldwide as seems to be the case.
However, since for the first time in years, we seem to almost agree about something, I won't pursue the argument.
s. Wallerstein,
My liberal aunt spent about half a century trying to influence the views of my right-wing father, all to no avail. For some people, there is no educational process that can change their heads.
In the long run, demographic shifts might help to change the culture, but what we confront with climate change is an immediate threat that can't wait for long-term changes in culture. And right now, the filibuster could be the impediment to enacting climate legislation.
No matter who wins the election, our economy seems likely to tank. Down here in Orlando things are looking pretty bleak---a tourist town with no tourists. Not to sound too alarmist, but what if the worst case scenario actually plays out? Massive unemployment, social chaos. What then? What's the way out? Might be time to have a few proactive thoughts.
Jeffrey,
Please, please don’t even contemplate the possibility! My mental health cannot bear it!
As the character played by Shawn Wallace in “The Princess Bride” said repeatedly, “It’s inconceivable!” (I know, Patinkin kept telling him, “I don’t think you know what the meaning of that word is.”)
Pax MS-Wallerstein. How long can it last?
Re the cheating at chess - maybe the issue is not pleasure in winning by cheating as much as not being seen to lose.
Please, please, no more quotes from, "The Princess Bride"---my mental health cannot bear it.
'In my book on black studies I wrote at length about the myth that the United States is in some way an exception to the general truths about democracy and dictatorship'
You mean, 'Autobiography of an Ex-White Man: Learning a New Master Narrative for America'. This is your 'book on black studies', which from the title, is about a an unwittingly Eurocentric white Professor of Philosophy, who undergoes a black personal enlightenment about his own white self, the American dream for Jews, to paraphrase Malcolm X, has been a nightmare for Black people. However, you can begin to relate. Is there a pun in 'master narrative?' I thought it was about challenging the “master narrative”. I mean, if the master narrative is whatever ideological script that is being imposed by the people in authority on everybody else. I also thought only journalists gas about this, but I stand corrected.
As to 'the general truths about democracy and dictatorship', I guess this means cultural determinants *of* democracy and dictatorship? No? Does it mean, 'Islam is incompatible with democracy'? Does it mean statistical analyses? The master fiction. History. It has a certain point of view.
I suppose one could argue whether the Pussy Grabber in Chief exacerbated or not the win by crook or by hook "culture", whatever "culture" means. Maybe he did.
But isn't it a bit naïve for adults who represent themselves as worldly--some of whom actually represent themselves as lawyers, for God's sake!--to suggest said culture is something new?
Hasn't anyone here visited debating societies? I don't know now, but they used to be popular in my time. They are and have always been a scale model of how liberal democracies work. You are assigned a side in a debate, whether you believe in it or not, and you have to argue for that side.
Let's be honest for once, people, that piece of orange shit didn't create that. There are plenty masters around ... on both sides ... even in this very same comment thread.
B.L. Zebub
I can't be the first person who has thought of this but I'm curious why it's not more talked about. It seems to me the most likely thing that will happen post-election. On election night or early the next morning, after repudiating the corrupt electoral process that resulted in his fake loss, Trump will announce his candidacy for a second term. Why not? It will be like snatching victory from the jaws of defeat (so to speak). To his followers, it will be a veritable resurrection. As an active candidate in the months and years to follow, Trump could still call on his mobs to regularly assemble in adoration of him, use his fanatic base to bully and manipulate members of congress and threaten potential challengers, have a presidential candidate's rhetorical shield against investigators and prosecutors (political enemies!), and hold onto a highly marketable commodity in his own person (foreign banks and governments take note). There are probably other reasons I'm not thinking of. My point is, it's not merely his constituency that will be around for years to come, but the monster himself will still be actively warping our political discourse and tormenting us with his (to the media) irresistible presence.
You really know how to depress a fella.
Anonymous,
First, let me repeat my frequent request of anonymati. I appreciate your desire to remain anonymous, but that is shared--as it appears to be on this blog--it is impossible to tell if I'm responding to the same person. A pen name--Mark Twain is probably available--would solve the problem. Identity would be preserved while the rest of us could keep track of who is saying what.
Second, an interesting possibility that I hadn't thought of. I'm pretty rusty on the history, but the scenario you suggest reminds me of the break up of the Whigs and the rise of the Republican party. If Trump were to stay active, and bring his base with him, he'd still be the candidate of a minority. The question, I guess, is what would other Republican office holders do? If Republicans lose the trifecta--White House, Senate, House--there would effectively be two parties in the minority: Trumpists and Republicans. I can't see many more Republicans moving toward Trump at such a point--he's hit his high mark already. How successful a Biden first term is would likely be a major factor in how the opposition evolves. The more Biden is seen to be successful, the more likely Trumpism is likely to fade away.
Sorry, Professor. Be comforted with the thought that there must be something seriously wrong with my scenario or else we'd be hearing a lot more about it by now.
Excuse me, David, and thanks for your reply. My name is Steve Webb, nobody in particular; but I will sign my name in future to avoid the problem you note.
The precedent I have in mind, of course, is Grover Cleveland's non-consecutive second term. Could Trump follow that model? Like I say, I don't see why not, especially if he uses his loss as the starting blocks for running again. That gives him a lot of time to further solidify and grow an already highly mobilized base, not to mention cultivate stronger ties with militia groups, Q—anon, and other alt-reality entities. Who knows, maybe by 2024 those entities will have largely succeeded in their world-altering ambitions, or at least in fomenting so much confusion that the majority of Americans genuinely won't be able to tell which way is up anymore (consider how far those entities and their foreign aiders and abetters have come already!).
Also, my impression is that the Trump party is now a lot bigger and a lot more energetic than the Republican Party. Lincoln Project Republicans and their ilk are out for good, and the D.C. establishment Republicans are too fixated on lobbyists, fundraising, and primaries to put up an effective resistance. However much spine the latter will have managed to grow after Trump leaves office, I fear it won't be straight enough or strong enough to fend off a third Trump nomination. Whether Trump can actually go on to win a second term would largely depend on how big a mess the country is in by 2024(I expect pretty big), and how deep and wide the fracture grows between left and and moderate Democrats. They also have a unity problem, as you know. I expect that split will quickly manifest itself in the new year.
These are the grumblings of an inveterate pessimist.
Steve Webb
Fricking inveterate pessimists---had to have one removed from my attic last night. Steve Pinker came to the rescue.
There's important movement work to be done. But for folks more focused on electoral politics, there's lots of stuff we can do instead of sitting around waiting for election results.
Voter mobilization campaigns, such as this one:
https://www.mobilize.us/turnout2020/event/316182/?can_id=27e7b074778054f3c156725c4a20ff49&email_referrer=email_962092&email_subject=rsvp-needed-sign-up-for-a-one-hour-phonebanking-shift&link_id=0
Progressive groups preparing to defend in the streets:
https://inthesetimes.com/article/donald-trump-coup-election-day-labor-unions-grassroots-progressive-organizations
Protect the Results:
https://protecttheresults.com/
indivisible.org
Bone up on the far-right / alt right / white supremacists / cultural nationalists, as they're organizing on many levels and are even having success on university campuses (Turning Point, etc):
Fascism Today, by Shane Burley
Ctrl-Alt-Delete
angrywhitemen.org
itsgoingdown.org
How Fascism Works, by Jason Stanley
antifascistnews.net
Relax everyone. If Il Duce loses the election, he will have to campaign from a New York jail cell. And then we can all thank Justice Barrett when she joins her five conservative colleagues and rules that state laws which prohibit ex-felons from voting also prohibit them from running for office after they have served their time.
You don't think that Trump is going to ask for and get a complete pardon for himself and his family from Biden before he agrees to leave the White House without calling for armed militia to defend his "electoral triumph" if he loses the election?
Stephen,
You are the most cynical of the cynical. Biden, as Commander in Chief, would order the military to remove Il Duce and his family from the White House by force, and frankly, I believe the military would be more than willing to do, given the aspersions Il Duce has cast on the military and the statements by past Chiefs of the Joint Chiefs of Staff criticizing him. John Kelly and James Matthis would lead the charge. And I would love to see the neo-Nazi militia, white supremacists, and Q Anonymous adherents armed with their assault rifles and Molotov cocktails go up against the military’s armored personnel carriers and laser guided missiles.
Sorry. I posted the comment in the wrong thread.
Marc, are you incapable of engaging in a dialogue without insulting the other party? There is no reason to call me "cynical". I could insult you back, but once again, after posting this, I will return to my previous of not engaging with your toxic comments.
I was mistaken that I could engage in an intellectual dialogue with someone like you.
Professor Wolff in his previous post spoke about how the experience of Trump will put to rest whatever remains of the myth of U.S. exceptionalism.
What I witnessed in Chile post Pinochet is that the desire among elites to maintain peace trumps (if I may use that word in the sense we used to use it) the demands of justice. Pinochet never spent a day in jail for his crimes and while he never received a formal pardon and while human rights groups and organizations of victims of the dictatorship and their families tried to bring him to justice, there was a "gentleman's agreement" among mainstream political figures, the mainstream media and economic elites that a peaceful political climate and steady economic growth were preferible to the problems that bringing Pinochet to justice would have involved. Although he remained army commander in chief for several years after having to step down as president, Pinochet could not have carried out another coup d'état after that because he no longer had the support of the Air Force, the uniformed police nor of the U.S. embassy. So all he was roughly in the position of Trump, with power to make problems, to cause violence, to disrupt the economy, but not to stay in power.
My bet is that Biden will make a deal and that Trump will leave the White House, but never spend a minute in jail.
Jeez, Stephen, referring to someone as “cynical” is not an insult, and I did not intend it to be one. It is just a comment on an individual’s attitude. I have never encountered anyone before who felt they were being insulted by being described as cynical. In fact, some regard it as a compliment – that they are not easily duped. And this also is an observation, not intended as an insult – you are a bit thin-skinned.
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