Like many people my age, I get up several times during the night and last night I learned about Trump's positive test for Covid at about 1:30 AM. I didn't get much sleep after that and I have spent the entire morning listening to the news and trying to figure out what it means for a campaign that has now only four weeks remaining before election day. Assuming, as I think we must, that the president will recover from the virus without significant short or long-term effects, there are two possibilities: either this diagnosis will make no difference to the outcome of the election or it will hurt Trump. I don't really see how it can possibly hurt Biden. This is the mother of all October surprises, of course, and the principal effect that it will have, I suspect, is on voter turnout which is all important. Should it happen, unlikely as it is, that Trump has a very serious or even fatal case of Covid, then all bets are off.
I have just heard that the Bidens tested negative, thank God.
Stay tuned.
18 comments:
trump--covid 19 +ve--FAKE NEWS
In another election cycle, I might say his absence from the campaign trail could prove detrimental for him. But given this cycle's striking stability and constancy, that seems unlikely.
My best hope right now is that it spares us the pain of a second Trump-Biden debate.
This is my fervent prayer: That Il Duce’s infection takes him out of commission. That Pence has also contracted a covid 19 infection and is also taken out of commission. Nancy Pelosi does not contract the virus because she has had the good sense to wear a mask, assumes the Presidency, withdraws the nomination of Amy Barrett and nominates Merrick Garland (or Lawrence Tribe). The Republicans delay the nomination until after the election, Biden wins and makes the same appointment. Sounds unpatriotic? Sorry.
Il Duce’s contracting the virus surpasses the ontological argument as proof of a superior intelligent sentience in the universe.
MS
My sexist bias is showing again. I should have included Judge Josephine Staton as a potential nominee.
MS
My prayers to Our Lady of Poetic Justice have been answered.
"... the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether."
Trump is going to be just fine. Some of the rest of you though will have to continue to live with bitter hearts.
@Unknown, somebody around here told me the other day that I don't know what I am talking about and I should spend some time learning how the government actually works, or something to that effect. Now here you are saying that if the opportunity arises, the Dems should fill Ginsburg's seat with Merrick Garland or Laurence Tribe. Merrick Garland will be 68 and Laurence Tribe will be 79 in 3 weeks.
Amy Coney Barrett is 48.
(And add in the 4-5 years longer life-expectancy for women over men.)
Biden has promised to put an African-American woman on the Supreme Court. If he's going to throw away one of the opportunities of shoring up the Court, by choosing someone in their 60s or older, why not pick Anita Hill? (He won't, but it would be fantastic seeing her on the Court with Thomas.)
correction: in 6 weeks
MS:
“Il Duce’s contracting the virus surpasses the ontological argument as proof of a superior intelligent sentience in the universe.”
I know you’re joking or exaggerating but Trump’s getting the coronavirus does not prove that a superior intelligent sentience (whether the deist God or theist God) exists.
Trump’s campaign was very reckless with respect to the virus insofar as they had massive rallies (indoors and outdoors) without social distancing and in which few people were wearing masks. Trump himself rarely wears a mask and has basically signaled that masks are for wimps: weak-ass, pussy, unmanly, “soy boy” liberals and Democrats. He didn’t follow the science or biosecurity procedures and now he has contracted the virus and likely spread it to many others.
None of this proves that a superior intelligence exists. It is entirely consistent with atheism and science (epidemiology).
But this is a classic example of extreme human stupidity and the potential consequences of recklessness.
From a comment thread on another blog:
Justice Ginsburg wins first motion in Higher Court.
And if the bowling pins keep falling, she may win another few motions, who can say.
Eric,
Your point is properly noted and I am duly chastened. I just picked the first two names that popped into my head, and thought it would be appropriate to nominate Merrick Garland given how rudely he was treated in 2016. Anita Hill would be an excellent choice, as would Josephine Staton.
Have you taken my advice and looked up the case of Juliana v. United States? I think you would enjoy reading the dissent.
MS
"He didn’t follow the science or biosecurity procedures and now he has contracted the virus and likely spread it to many others. None of this proves that a superior intelligence exists."
True, though that conclusion makes less imaginative use of the data, which support the existence of an inferior intelligence.
Not very a propos but I thought this might amuse
LINES ON A FIRST LADY OCCASIONED BY SOME RECENT TAPES.
Who gives a fuck about Christmas?
[That’s what Lady Melania said]
And as for those kids at the border
Who cares if they’re separated?
Their parents are probably lying
About fleeing their countries from fear
There’s no risk of anyone dying
They just want twenty thousand a year.
Meanwhile I am working my ass off
On planning for Christmassy stuff
But the press won’t let me hear the last of
The charge I’m not doing ‘enough’
For those horrible snivelling children
Kept away from their Moms and their Dads
Their puking and whining and crying,
Won’t give me a fit of the sads.
I said it, I thought, with my Jacket
“I don’t care really, do you?”
I’m finding it taxing to hack it
So many dumb duties to do!
I don’t really care about bullying
But as FLOTUS I must have a cause
And as for that smiling and waving
I would sure like to give it a pause.
It really is tough being FLOTUS
With the press and the trouble they make
But that I should got up against POTUS
For some kids - Well, fuck, Give me a break!
The 'me' in 'Won’t give *me* a fit of the sads' should be be emphasised
Question: From Day 1, the President and his Administration has issued a steady stream of lies (recall the repeated statements that the inauguration was one of the best attended in history [despite photographic evidence to the contrary]). Why do we accept this most recent statement as truth? I'm wary.
-- Jim
Why accept Trump's illness as true?
Because it's difficult to imagine that the entire staff of Walter Reade Hospital is participating in Trump's fraud. There must be some Democrats among the doctors and nurses, and the hospital administration has its prestige as a serious institution to protect.
It's also hard to really see how this benefits him in any great way. You could say it might get him out of the debates, or make him look more sympathetic and shield him from some attacks leading up to the election...but ultimately it's pretty bad optics for capping off his term with the pandemic and lack of response to it.
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