And so it has happened after 230 years. According to the new census figures, the absolute number of white people in the United States has for the first time declined. Furthermore, a majority of Americans under the age of 18 are not white. These are the things of which white supremacist panic is made and we can expect that panic to get worse as the decades go by. As I noted in a previous blog post, the fertility rate among American whites is 1.6, lower than the 1.7 for all Americans and well below replacement level. Those of you who are young will before too long live in a majority nonwhite America.
I will not live to see that, of course, but I saw my neurologist yesterday and she gave me the cheerful news that I have a mild case of Parkinson's and can, with care and caution and luck, expect to live a fair amount longer, so I am afraid you will have Bob Wolff to kick around for quite some time (if I may recycle an old Richard Nixon line.)
19 comments:
Congratulations on the good news.
And then Nixon went on to become President, supposedly proving Fitzgerald’s prediction wrong, that there are no second acts in American lives.
Except that is not what Fitzgerald meant. See
https://www.npr.org/2013/05/08/182337919/fitzgerald-might-disagree-with-his-no-second-acts-line
I am glad to hear that the neurologist had good news, and I look forward to reading your blog for a long time to come!
That's wonderful to hear :)
good news is good news
Fertility rates correlate inversely with female literacy rates. See the graph further down on this page:
Education Leads to Lower Fertility and Increased Prosperity
Fertility rates also correlate inversely with income. See the Fed graph here:
The Link between Fertility and Income
Then we get into "replacement theory":
Behind the idea is a racist conspiracy theory known as “the replacement theory,” which was popularized by a right-wing French philosopher. An extension of colonialist theory, it is predicated on the notion that white women are not having enough children and that falling birthrates will lead to white people around the world being replaced by nonwhite people.
And like so many fundamentalist ideologies, the foundation of this one requires the subjugation of women.
“For people in the white power movement, everything is framed through reproduction and gender,” said Kathleen Belew, a history professor at the University of Chicago who has studied these groups.
As far-right groups have grown across the world, many of their members have insisted that the most pressing concern is falling birthrates. That concern, which they see as an existential threat, has led to arguments about how women are working instead of raising families. The groups blame feminism, giving rise to questions that were unheard-of a decade ago — like, whether women should have the right to work and vote at all.
source: ‘Replacement Theory,’ a Racist, Sexist Doctrine, Spreads in Far-Right Circles
Here in Canada, they've just introduced the Pay Equity Act which is equal pay for work of equal value. Of course, higher pay for women means it raises the opportunity cost of having children, which further reduces the fertility rate.
I love your commentary and hope you live to a ripe old age--say a hundred!
That's a relief!
Congratulations on BOTH pieces of good news. As Spock nearly said: Live long and blog.
Professor Wolff,
Good news is hard to find these days, but I'm glad you found some. Plus, good news is even nicer whenever one can share it with a mass crowd and that can be enjoyed by all--which I believe is true in this particular case.
BTW, I know I sound like a broken record, but I believe Herman Melville prophetically forecasted our present timeline in the First Chapter of his novel Moby Dick. In the somewhat close to the end of the First Chapter called LOOMINGS, Melville speaks about Providence & the Fates and gives this statement afterwards:
"GRAND CONTESTED ELECTION FOR THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES. WHALING VOYAGE BY ONE ISHMAEL. BLOODY BATTLE IN AFGHANISTAN."
Take it for what you will, until recently I thought Melville might have meant something else, ever since the major U.S. troop pull out from Afghanistan that has happened this past year. But now it's quite possible since the Taliban has broken their U.S. agreement, & President Biden is sending troops into Afghanistan as a reprisal, that the 'BLOODY BATTLE IN AFGHANISTAN' may commence a very short time from now. Maybe this month, maybe in the next couple of succeeding months from now, or maybe even in November, December, or even in January of next year. Of course, people may wonder the significance of all of this even if Melville was metaphorically speaking of our present timeline? Well if he was speaking of our present time, then 'Whaling Voyage by one Ishmael' may not be talking about Herman Melville, himself, as he does call himself Ishmael in the narrative of Moby Dick. But who is Ishmael in this particular passage then? It could mean the rise of another Madhi... Or perhaps even a Anti-Christ... That, of course, might even begin the culmination of some End Times prophecy. But whatever happens it is important to realize that our allied troops may be put in harm's way in a urban battle similar or worse than Fallujah (Iraq) which would be very tragic and horrible to U.S. troops & Americans & it's Allies everywhere. And also politically back home the Democratic administration may get in trouble (& get the blame) for another 'Black Hawk Down' (Somalia) news event. But I don't think such a battle will happen anytime soon. The reason is I believe I have noticed how the Taliban leadership fights. They pull their fighters back quickly (with some fighting) when the U.S. puts in a show-of-force in a certain area. Then they assess the situation. Then they attack with their fighters whenever the battlefield is more in their favor to go on the offensive. Of course, I hope I don't regret posting all of this stuff even if it is somewhat true. But I'll take Soren Kierkegaard's philosophical advice concerning all of this. "Post it & I'll regret it. Don't post it & I'll regret that too." No matter what happens, though, I hope U.S. and Allied troops don't ever have to fight (& take on casualties) in another battle almost like Fallujah, like Fallujah, or even worse.
"I hope Kabul doesn't turn into another Bastogne. For there would be no General George S. Patton to save it."
"When Herat fell, Ismail Khan was captured. He is a very popular Afghan anti-Taliban commander. So popular that the Taliban dismissed him to his home in fear of angering the Afghan population. Of course, now they say he has joined with the Taliban. Ismail maybe the Ishmael mentioned by Melville."
"BTW, I don't believe Ismail Khan is the Anti-Christ or the Madhi. But separate from those two categories, he may be the Ishmael mentioned by Melville."
Michael,
I pulled my copy of Moby Dick from my book shelf with a high degree of skepticism, just to check what you have written, and by God, those sentences are in fact there, at the end of the first chapter.
Afghanistan has proved to be the donnybrook for the British, then the Russians, and now the U.S.
In the sad and chilling video link below, a CNN reporter talks to a Taliban leader who has taken over what was formerly a U.S. military base. The landscape is strewn with abandoned military vehicles and armaments, and the leader predicts that the Taliban will take its jihad to the rest of the world, and make Islam the international religion. The journalist interviews another leader who indicates that young girls will be provided an education consistent with Shariah law, which means only a religious education. She reports speaking to a former U.S. serviceman and asked his thoughts, he says, “What a waste. What a waste.”
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/08/13/taliban-former-us-military-base-afghanistan-ghazni-province-ward-dnt-lead-vpx.cnn
I doubt that the Taliban can have any military success outside of Afghanistan. God, I certainly hope not.
RE: Those of you who are young will before too long live in a majority nonwhite America.
"White" has been redefined numerous times in the last 175 years, unlike, I believe, "Black".
In the mid 19th Century, when Irish migration dramatically picked up during and after the Great Hunger, there was much discussion on these shores about whether these migrants were white. Eventually that was settled in the affirmative and the same question was soon repeated with regard to the unwashed millions from eastern and southern Europe; this was largely settled in the 1940s, though it took Jews perhaps another 10-15 years for the definitive answer (and Charlottesville saw an attempt to reopen that question).
I mention this because I suspect we are on the verge of another redefinition of whiteness to include many others with a large fraction of European (or perhaps west Eurasian) ancestry, so long as it does not also include any sub-Saharan African ancestry within the last millennium or so. Perhaps light skinned individuals with ancestry from northern South Asia, southwest Asia and (whenever we get passed our current hostility to Islam) north Africa will also be included before much longer, once their descendants can trace their ancestry on this continent back 1-2 generations.
Then some future Eisenhower-like figure can speak of the Judeo-Christian-Muslim tradition (or even better, the Abrahamic tradition). At that point all can rest easy that the US remains majority white.
Just a reminder that it was the US that introduced radical Islam into Afghanistan to drive the Soviet Union out. (The first few seconds are muted before the audio kicks in):
Hillary Clinton : We created Al Qaeda
Here's a partial transcript I found online:
Clinton said the US has a history of moving in and out of Pakistan. "I mean, let's remember here, the people we are fighting today we funded 20 years ago. We did it because we were locked in this struggle with the Soviet Union. They invaded Afghanistan, and we did not want to see them control Central Asia, and we went to work," she said.
"It was President (Ronald) Reagan, in partnership with the Congress, led by Democrats, who said, you know what? Sounds like a pretty good idea. Let's deal with the ISI and the Pakistani military, and let's go recruit these mujahidin. And great, let's get some to come from Saudi Arabia and other places, importing their Wahhabi brand of Islam, so that we can go beat the Soviet Union. And guess what? They retreated. They lost billions of dollars, and it led to the collapse of the Soviet Union," Clinton said.
re: the Irish Potato Famine of 1845
The Irish Diaspora numbers 70 million as compared to the 5 million Irish in Ireland. This is part of the fulfillment of a divine prophecy, namely God's promise to Abraham that his progeny would fill the earth, Jews and Christians from the line of Isaac, and Muslims from the line of Ishmael. The latter being effected today through radical Islam like al-Qaeda, ISIS, Taliban, etc.
Saying that the reason Muslim refugees and migrants are streaming into Europe has something to do with Islamic terrorism is like saying that the reason there's a lot of Irish around has something to do with potatoes.
Secondary causes are only a veil to occupy the common people. God’s elect see through the causes to the Causer of causes. —Rumi
'Those of you who are young will before too long live in a majority nonwhite America.'
Well, I'm not young, but I *am* in California.
'As I noted in a previous blog post, the fertility rate among American whites is 1.6, lower than the 1.7 for all Americans and well below replacement level.'
Noting that replacement level is '2'. Of course, one often reads '2.1' for this, because although this woman is imaginary, maternal mortality and child mortality are not.
Of course, there are supposed to be 7.674 billion in the world, or that's one estimate. Is that *not enough people*? How many is the right number? I marvel that parents think they have the right, as merely human, bad parents, to pass on their bad genes and bad habits and bad parenting, the cycle of all your aches and pains, why is it a good idea to pass it on? The point may not seem relevant.
Delighted you're sticking around!
Post a Comment